Frontiers and Structural Transformations of the Global Pharmaceutical Market

Background. In order to achieve the technological sovereignty of the Russian Federation, the transformation of existing scientific reserves into in-demand technologies and technologically independent sectors of the economy, special attention is paid to the frontier areas of world science. At the same time, frontiers are understood as thematic areas on the basis of which Russian critical technologies will be developed in the import-saving paradigm. Aims — the purpose of the study is to identify the most promising niches of the global pharmaceutical market and research areas focused on their expansion. Methods. Analysis of the volume of R&D financing by the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies in the period 2015–2022, multi-criteria scientometric analysis and thematic mapping of the collection of the most highly cited reviews published in 2020–2022 and indexed in the Scopus database. Results. The analysis of the volume of R&D financing by the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies in the period 2015–2022, and their average annual growth rates, was carried out. It is shown that with an annual increase in the corporate R&D budget of 2.8%, by 2022 the total R&D expenditures of key players in the global pharmaceutical market reached $182 billion per year. At the same time, 60% of these funds ($109.4 billion) fell in 2022 to the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies investing in the development of new medicines. For comparison, the internal costs of research and development of the Russian Federation are given, which, taking into account the GDP deflator as of 08.04.2022, are estimated at $48 billion, of which the amount of budget funding provided in 2023 for the priority direction of the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation “Transition to personalized medicine, high-tech healthcare and technologies health savings, including through the rational use of medicines (primarily antibacterial)”, will amount to 39.5 billion rubles. Given the relatively low level of funding for domestic research and development of new medicines (compared to the budgets for R&D of pharmaceutical companies in the world), it seemed important to identify the most promising niches of the global pharmaceutical market and research areas focused on their expansion. Conclusion. As a result of multi-criteria scientometric analysis and thematic mapping of the collection of the most highly cited reviews published in 2020–2022 and indexed in the Scopus database, 10 frontier research areas have been identified that have the potential to transform the structure of the global pharmaceutical market until 2030.