MEDICAL-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO FORECASTING INDICATORS OF ADOLESCENT HEALTH IN THE MODERN PERIOD

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Abstract

Data on features of formation of health of different groups of the population in the development process of the country and its regions are an important information base for the development and implementation of measures for the maintenance and strengthening of public health. The aim of the study was to determine and predict trends in indicators of primary disease incidence and prevalence among adolescent population over the next 10 years. Materials provided to analyze the data of the consolidated annual report forms № 12 "The number of registered diseases in patients living in the service area of the medical establishment" for showing trends over the 10-year period (2001-2010). Calculation and analysis of dynamics were integral coefficients, determined the level of adolescent health violations from "low" to "high".  Incidence rate of incidence and prevalence of disease were evaluated by calculating the dynamic coefficient of determination R² approximation. The article presents results of forecasting over the next 10 years in the adolescent population (15-17 years) changes the primary indicators incidence and prevalence of diseases. This technique was used by the authors. In view of the projected increase in detected trends data set of indicators at 40,7-50,2%. Sex predicted dynamics of increase in juniors at 42,1-58.9%, the girls — the 31,2-49,6%. These data characterize negatively predicted for the near future a regional trend in incidence rates in the analyzed populations. They must be taken into account when deciding on the preservation and strengthening of health of the rising generation, including — in shaping regional social programs and health care programs.

 

About the authors

D. V. Kulesh

Scientific Centre of the Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation

Author for correspondence.
Email: iphr@sbamsr.irk.ru
PhD, Head of the Laboratory of Public Health Problems, Scientific Center of Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences Address: 664003, Irkutsk, Timirjazeva St., 16; tel.: (83952) 20-73-67 Россия

S. I. Kolesnikov

Scientific Centre of the Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation

Email: iphr@sbamsr.irk.ru
PhD, RAMS academician, Leading Research Worker, Laboratory of Assisted Reproductive Technologies and Perinatal Medicine, Scientific Center of Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences Address: 664003, Irkutsk, Timirjazeva St., 16; tel.: (83952) 20-76-36 Россия

V. V. Dolgikh

Scientific Centre of the Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation

Email: iphr@sbamsr.irk.ru
PhD, Professor, Deputy Director of Scientific Center of Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences Address: 664003, Irkutsk, Timirjazeva St., 16; tel.: (83952) 20-73-67 Россия

S. V. Shoiko

Irkutsk Regional Fund of Obligatory Medical Insurance, Irkutsk, Russian Federation

Email: irotfoms@mccirk.ru
PhD, Director of Territorial Fund of Mandatory Health Insurance of Citizens of Irkutsk Region Address: 664035, Irkutsk, July St., 3, 20; tel.: (83952) 34-19-02 Россия

N. N. Abashin

Scientific Centre of the Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation

Email: iphr@sbamsr.irk.ru
PhD, Research Worker, the Laboratory of Public Health Problems, Scientific Center of Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences Address: 664025, Irkutsk, Karl Marx St., 3; tel.: (83952) 24-03-34 Россия

L. N. Lebedeva

Scientific Centre of the Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation

Email: leb_46@mail.ru
laboratory Assistant, Laboratory of Public Health Problems, Scientific Center of Family Health and Human Reproduction Problems Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences Address: 664025, Irkutsk, Karl Marx St., 3; tel.: (83952) 24-03-34 Россия

References

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