CLINICAL AND LABORATORY PREDICTORS FOR FORECASTING THE OUTCOMES OF IXODES TICK-BORNE BORRELIOSIS

Objective: Our aim was to identify the most informative clinical and laboratory predictors of chronicity of Ixodes tick-borne borreliosis in the acute phase of the disease based on the «optimal cut-off values» (COV) and the predicted probability of the outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cohort controlled study was carried out. We used the technique of ROC-analysis to estimate the information content of the clinical and laboratory indicators in patients with Ixodes tick-borne borreliosis in the acute phase of the disease with erythemal (n =16), non-erythemal (n =77) forms of Ixodes tickborne borreliosis and co-infection with the tick-borne encephalitis (n =68) for the prediction of the outcomes: recovery or chronization. Results: A retrospective analysis of clinical and laboratory parameters recorded in the acute phase of the disease in 161 patients with chronic Ixodes tick-borne borreliosis. The calculations were performed for the informative clinical and laboratory prognostic predictors of the outcomes for the intervals above and below the COV values are defined probabilities of recovery or chronization of Ixodes tick-borne borreliosis. A general predictor of outcomes for all clinical forms of the disease — the interleukin 8 — was established: the probability of chronization after erythemal form is 100.0% at the level of its production over 107.89 pg/ml (AUC =1.0), after non-erythemal form is 54.63±0.23% at serum concentrations above 94.64 pg/ml (AUC =0.770), after co-infection with the tick-borne encephalitis is 52.69±0.27% at the level of interleukin 8 above 84.96 pg/ml (AUC =0.780). Conclusion: The  results of the study suggest the possibility of predicting the outcomes of infection in the acute phase, which allows to optimize the etiopathogenic therapy of the disease in a timely manner.