Cover Page

Cite item


The paper presents results of a comprehensive analysis of the cardiovascular diseases (CVD) situation, both in the global and Russian contexts. It introduces original data illustrating the declining mortality rate from CVD, and the diminishing contribution of these diseases to overall mortality rate — globally and, to a larger extent, in developed countries. The paper also analyses the reasons for continuing CVD epidemic in Russia. Based on factual evidence, it argues that those include insufficient expenditures on treating CVD patients, and critically inadequate funding of prevention programmes. Unsatisfactory use of these funds to subsidise Russian regions (without taking into account their actual needs determined by the CVD mortality rate) only makes the problem worse. Through modelling, «average» efficiency of the Russian health care system in reducing CVD mortality was revealed. The paper describes various scenarios for future development of the Russian CVD situation. In the context of innovation-based scenario, the advantages of technological foresight are analysed; specifically, the authors summarise major S&T development trends in the health sector (using data of the Russian S&T Foresight 2030), which could significantly contribute to stopping the CVD epidemic in Russia.



About the authors

R. T. Saygitov

National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation

Author for correspondence.

доктор медицинских наук, главный научный сотрудник отдела научно-техноло-
гического прогнозирования Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭ
Адрес: 101000, Москва, ул. Мясницкая, д. 9–11, тел.: +7 (495) 772-95-90 (доб. 12023)

Russian Federation

A. A. Chulok

National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation


кандидат экономических наук, заместитель директора международного научно-
образовательного Форсайт-центра Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭ
Адрес: 101000, Москва, ул. Мясницкая, д. 9–11, тел.: +7 (495) 772-95-90 (доб. 11575)

Russian Federation


  1. Kontseptsiya dolgosrochnogo sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2020 goda. Rasporyazhenie Pravitel'stva RF ot 17.11.2008 № 1662-r (The Concept of Long-term Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2020. Order of the Government of the Russian Federation № 1662-r dated 17.11.2008). Available at: (accessed: 26.03.2015).
  2. Sokolov A.V., Chulok A.A. Long-term forecast of scientific and technological development of Russia for the period up to 2030: the key features of the first results. Forsait = Forsythe. 2012; 6 (1): 12–25.
  3. Salazar A., Miles I. The impact assessment of telematics applications in health care in Europe. Int. J. Health Care Technol. Management. 2004; 5 (5/6): 359–377.
  4. Cunningham P., Grant-Pearce C., Green L., Miles I., Uyarra E. In sickness, in health and in innovation: NHS DIRECT — a health sector innovation study. Administration. 2005; 53 (3): 42–65.
  5. Prognoz nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossii: 2030. Meditsina i zdravookhranenie. Pod red. L.M. Gokhberga, L.M. Ogorodovoi [Forecast of Scientific and Technological Development of Russia: 2030. Medicine and Health care. Edited by L.M. Gokhberg, L.M. Ogorodova]. Moscow: NIU «Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki»; 2014. 48 p.
  6. Vos T., Flaxman A.D., Naghavi M. Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet. 2012; 380 (9859): 2163–2196.
  7. Ford E.S., Capewell S. Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in the U.S. from 1980 through 2002: concealed leveling of mortality rates. J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. 2007; 50: 2128–2132.
  8. Nichols M., Townsend N., Scarborough P., Rayner M. Trends in age specific coronary heart disease mortality in the European Union over three decades: 1980–2009. Eur. Heart J. 2013; 34 (39): 3017–3027.
  9. O’Flaherty M., Allender S., Taylor R., Stevenson C., Peeters A., Capewell S. The decline in coronary heart disease mortality is slowing in young adults (Australia 1976–2006): a time trend analysis. Int. J. Cardiol. 2012; 158 (2): 193–198.
  10. Kontsevaya A., Kalinina A., Oganov R. Economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the Russian Federation. Health Regional Issues. 2013; 2: 199–204.
  11. Timofeeva T.N., Deev A.D., Shal'nova S.A., Balanova Yu.A., Konstantinov V.V. Analiticheskaya spravka ob epidemiologicheskoi situatsii po AG v 2008 godu i ee dinamike s 2003 po 2008 gg. po trem provedennym monitoringam [Analytical Review of Epidemiology of Hypertension in 2008 and its Dynamics from 2003 to 2008 according to 3 Monitoring Procedures]. Available at: (accessed: 13.03.2015).
  12. O sostoyanii sanitarno-epidemiologicheskogo blagopoluchiya naseleniya v Rossiiskoi Federatsii v 2012 godu. Gosudarstvennyi doklad [On the Sanitary and Epidemiological Welfare State of the Population of the Russian Federation in 2012. State Report]. Moscow: Federal'naya sluzhba po nadzoru v sfere zashchity prav potrebitelei i blagopoluchiya cheloveka; 2013. 176 p.
  13. Global'nyi opros vzroslogo naseleniya o potreblenii tabaka (GATS) v Rossiiskoi Federatsii v 2009 g (Global Survey of the Adult Population on Tobacco Intake (GATS) in the Russian Federation in 2009). Available at: (accessed: 26.04.2015).
  14. Roshchina Ya.M. Dynamics and structure of consumption of alcohol in Russia. Vestnik Rossiiskogo monitoringa ekonomicheskogo polozheniya i zdorov'ya naseleniya NIU VShE = RLMS-HSE. 2012;2:238–257.
  15. Nichols M., Townsend N., Luengo-Fernandez R., Leal J., Gray A., Scarborough P., Rayner M. European Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2012. European Heart Network, Brussels, European Society of Cardiology, Sophia Antipolis. URL: (дата обращения: 28.03.2015).
  16. Postanovlenie Pravitel'stva RF ot 15 aprelya 2014 g. № 294 «Ob utverzhdenii gosudarstvennoi programmy Rossiiskoi Federatsii «Razvitie zdravookhraneniya» (Government Decree № 294 "On Approval of the State Program of the Russian Federation "Development of Health care" dated April 15, 2014). Available at: (accessed: 14.03.2015).
  17. Allender S., Scarborough P., Peto V., Rayner M., Leal J., Luengo-Fernandez R., Gray A. European cardiovascular disease statistics, 2008 edition. Brit. Heart Foundation. 2008; 4: 4–11. URL: http: // www. herzstiftung. ch/uploads/media/European_cardiovascular_ disease_statistics_2008.pdf (дата обращения: 05.04.2015).
  18. Leal J., Luengo-Fernández R., Gray A., Petersen S., Rayner M. Economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the enlarged European Union. Eur. Heart J. 2006; 27 (13): 1610–1619.
  19. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Effects of weak competition: quantitative assessment and policy implications: the expert-analytical report. Ekonomicheskaya politika = Economic policy. 2012;6:5–53.
  20. Stuckler D. Population causes and consequences of leading chronic diseases: a comparative analysis of prevailing explanations. Milbank Q. 2008; 86 (2): 273–326.
  21. Arah O.A., Westert G.P., Delnoij D.M., Klazinga N.S. Health system outcomes and determinants amenable to public health in industrialized countries: a pooled, cross sectional time series analysis. BMC Publ. Health. 2005; 2 (5): 81.
  22. Liu Y., Dalal K., Stollenwerk B. The association between health system development and the burden of cardiovascular disease: An analysis of WHO country profiles. PLoS One. 2013; 8 (4): 61718.
  23. Fuchs V.R. The gross domestic product and health care spending. N. Engl. J. Med. 2013; 369: 107–109.
  24. Yang L., Wu M., Cui B., Xu J. Economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in China. Exp. Rev. Pharm. Outcomes Res. 2008; 8 (4): 349–356.
  25. Lakić D., Tasić L., Kos M. Economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in Serbia. Vojnosanit Pregl. 2014; 71 (2): 137–143.
  26. National Heart Foundation, 2005. The shifting burden of cardiovascular disease in Australia. Available at: burden-cvd accecons-2005-may.Pdf (accessed: 28.03.2015).
  27. Psota M., Capewell S., O’Flaherty M., Goncalvesova E. The causes of changes in coronary heart disease mortality rates using the IMPACT model: A systematic review. Cardiology Letters. 2013; 22 (6): 449–458.
  28. Federal'nyi zakon ot 02.12.2013 (red. ot 28.06.2014) № 349–FZ ot 02.12.2013 «O federal'nom byudzhete na 2014 god i na planovyi period 2015 g. i 2016 g» (Federal Law (edition dated 28.06.2014) № 349-FZ dated 12.02.2013 "On the Federal Budget for 2014 and the Planning Period of 2015 and 2016" dated 12.02.2013). Available at: (accessed: 22.03.2015).
  29. OECD. Stat. Extracts. Available at: (2012). Health at a Glance: Europe 2012. OECD Publishing. Available at: http:// (accessed: 10.03.2015).
  30. OECD. Stat Extracts. Available at: (accessed: 10.04.2015).
  31. de Bekker-Grob E.W., Polder J.J., Mackenbach J.P., Meerding W.J. Towards a comprehensive estimate of national spending on prevention. BMC Public Health. 2007, 7: 252.
  32. Miller G., Roehrig C., Hughes-Cromwick P., Lake C. Quantifying national spending on wellness and prevention. Adv. Health Econ. Health Serv. Res. 2008; 19: 1–24.
  33. Brenner M.H. Impact of military expenditures on global health and life expectancy. J. Biowar Defence. 2013; 1 (1): 7.
  34. Hartwig J. What drives health care expenditure? Baumol’s model of ‘unbalanced growth’ revisited. J. Health Econ. 2008; 27 (3): 603–623.
  35. Shevskii V.I., Sheiman I.M., Shishkin S.V. Modernizatsiya rossiiskogo zdravookhraneniya: 2008–2020 gg [Modernization of Russian Health care: 2008-2020]. Moscow: Izdatel'skii dom VShE;2008. 22 p.
  36. Pandya A., Gaziano T.A., Weinstein M.C., Cutler D. More Ameri-cans living longer with cardiovascular disease will increase costs while lowering quality of life. Health Affairs. 2013; 32 (10): 1706– 1714.
  37. Mathers C.D., Loncar D. Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med. 2006; 3 (11): 442.
  38. Dorsey E.R., de Roulet J., Thompson J.P., Reminick J.I., Thai A., White-Stellato Z., Beck C.A., George B.P., Moses H. 3rd Funding of US biomedical research, 2003–2008. JAMA. 2010; 303 (2): 137–143.
  39. Dorsey E.R., Thompson J.P., Carrasco M., de Roulet J., Vitticore P., Nicholson S., Johnston S.C., Holloway R.G., Moses H. 3rd.
  40. Financing of U.S. biomedical research and new drug approvals across therapeutic areas. PLoS One. 2009; 4 (9): 7015.
  41. Rasporyazhenie Pravitel'stva RF ot 28.12.2012 № 2580-r «Ob utverzhdenii Strategii razvitiya meditsinskoi nauki v Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2025 goda» (Order of the RF Government of 28.12.2012 № 2580-r "On approval of the Strategy of development of medical science in the Russian Federation until 2025"). Available at: (accessed: 20.03.2015).

Copyright (c) 2015 "Paediatrician" Publishers LLC

This website uses cookies

You consent to our cookies if you continue to use our website.

About Cookies