Multivariate analysis of the megacity population immunity to measles

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  • Authors: Semenenko T.A.1,2, Nozdracheva A.V.1, Asatryan M.N.1, Akimkin V.G.3, Tutelyan A.V.2,3, Shmyr I.S.1, Ershov I.F.1
  • Affiliations:
    1. N.F. Gamaleya National Research Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology
    2. I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University)
    3. Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being
  • Issue: Vol 74, No 5 (2019)
  • Pages: 351-360
  • Section: EPIDEMIOLOGY: CURRENT ISSUES
  • URL: https://vestnikramn.spr-journal.ru/jour/article/view/1170
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.15690/vramn1170
  • Cite item
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Abstract


Background: The significant reduction of measles and rubella morbidity and child mortality, which allowed WHO to set a target for their elimination by 2010, is one of the finest examples of the vaccine prevention effectiveness in the fight against infectious diseases. However, in the period from 2010 to 2019 there was a controversial situation with respect to measles, characterized by the presence of high vaccination coverage of the population on the one hand, and an increase in the incidence on the other. Obviously, the key point in resolving these contradictions is to analyze the susceptibility of the population.

Aim: Of the study was to assess the susceptibility of Moscow population to measles in the context of factors affecting its formationю.

Methods: Epidemiological, serological, statistical methods and GIS technologies were used in the work. The serological study (using the solid-phase ELISA method) included 2410 blood serum samples collected between 2013 and 2017 from healthy residents of Moscow aged from birth to 60 years. On the basis of documents on sanitary and epidemic investigation of measles cases in Moscow (2013−2015) a relational database under the management of MySQL Database Management System was formed, based on the analysis of which the coverage of the population with preventive vaccinations was estimated.

Results: Оn average, the proportion of seronegative persons to measles in 2016−2017, compared with 2013−2014 (20.5%) increased and amounted to 29.0% mainly due to the group over 36 years. The most vulnerable were children aged 1−2 years and 3−6 years, where the share of the immune persons amounted to 51,5% and 37.9%, respectively, at low coverage in a planned manner (55,9% [95% CI, 52.2 per cent; of 59.5%] and 75,3% [95% CI, 73.3 per cent; for 77.2%]). The proportion of vaccinated persons who lost post-vaccination immunity under the influence of factors preventing its formation (from 3.6% to 21.6% in the group of 7−14 years; from 11.8% to 26.4% in the group of 15−17 years) was calculated. The possibility of visualizing the spread of measles on electronic maps for the territorial and temporal analysis of the epidemic situation is shown.

Conclusions: It is reasonable to assume that over the time, the proportion of people who have suffered measles will decrease, and the proportion of people not covered by vaccination or lost post-vaccination immunity - increase, that can lead to a decrease in herd immunity and requires correction of vaccination work. The proposed information and analytical system for monitoring the epidemiological situation allows to work quickly with heterogeneous resources and choose on electronic maps the area of interest from the global level (country) to the local (house), which is necessary for the adoption of scientifically based preventive and epidemiological measures.


Tatiana A. Semenenko

N.F. Gamaleya National Research Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology; I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University)

Email: semenenko@gamaleya.org
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6686-9011
SPIN-code: 8375-2270

Russian Federation, 18, Gamalei street, Moscow, 123098; 8-2, Trubetskaya street, Moscow, 119992

MD, PhD, Professor

Anna V. Nozdracheva

N.F. Gamaleya National Research Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: nozdracheva@gamaleya.org
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8521-1741
SPIN-code: 3631-8083

Russian Federation, 18, Gamalei street, Moscow, 123098

научный сотрудник отдела эпидемиологии

Marina N. Asatryan

N.F. Gamaleya National Research Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: masatryan@gamaleya.org
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6273-8615
SPIN-code: 5909-9349

Russian Federation, 18, Gamalei street, Moscow, 123098

MD, PhD

Vasilij G. Akimkin

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being

Email: vgakimkin@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8139-0247
SPIN-code: 4038-7455

Russian Federation, 3A, Novogireyevskaya street, Moscow, 111123

MD, PhD, Professor

Aleksey V. Tutelyan

I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University); Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being

Author for correspondence.
Email: willothewisp@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2706-6689
SPIN-code: 8150-2230

Russian Federation, 8-2, Trubetskaya street, Moscow, 119992; 3A, Novogireyevskaya street, Moscow, 111123

MD, PhD, Professor

Ilia S. Shmyr

N.F. Gamaleya National Research Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: shmyr_is@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8514-5174
SPIN-code: 3523-7548
18, Gamalei street, Moscow. 123098

лаборант-исследователь отдела эпидемиологии

Ivan F. Ershov

N.F. Gamaleya National Research Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: 79263448388@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3333-5347
SPIN-code: 9335-9776

Russian Federation, 18, Gamalei street, Moscow. 123098

научный сотрудник

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Supplementary files

Supplementary Files Action
1. Fig. 1. The share distribution of people of different age groups among participants for the study period,% View (121KB) Indexing metadata
2. Fig. 2. The coverage of preventive vaccinations in a planned manner and the share distribution of seropositive for measles virus people in different age groups in 2016−2017. View (165KB) Indexing metadata
3. Fig. 3. The share distribution of seronegative individuals in different age groups among the population of Moscow for the study period from 2013 to 2017. View (126KB) Indexing metadata
4. Fig. 4. An example of the conclusion (in dynamics) of cases of measles in Moscow during an outbreak in January-February 2015 View (1MB) Indexing metadata

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