The Theory of Self-Regulation of Parasitary Systems and COVID-19

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Abstract

Background. The COVID-19 pandemic once again confirmed the correctness of the theory of Academician V.D. Belyakov, according to which the basis for the development of the epidemic process is a phase change in the heterogeneity of the biological properties of the interacting populations of the pathogen and humans. In accordance with the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems, changes are associated not only with genetic variability, but also with other polydeterminant characteristics of the pathogen: when new genovariants appeared, SARS-CoV-2 became less pathogenic for humans, but more contagious. This circumstance is important not only for theoretical, but also for practical epidemiology, as it makes it possible to predict the direction of development of the epidemic situation.

Aims — to evaluate the manifestations of the epidemic process of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 through the prism of the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems.

Methods. An epidemiological retrospective analysis of the incidence of COVID-19 was carried out, including the study of absolute and intensive incidence rates per 100,000 population, the dynamics of changes in the properties of the coronavirus population, and the identification of SARS-CoV-2 genovariants for the period from 03.2020 to 04.2023. To analyze SARS-CoV-2 genovariants at various stages of the pandemic, we used sequencing data presented on the SARS-CoV-2 genome information aggregation platform Virus Genome Aggregator of Russia (VGARus) — more than 248 thousand genetic sequences.

Results. During the pandemic, there have been seven ups and downs in the incidence of COVID-19. During the period of circulation in the human population and adaptation to a new host, a significant amount of data has accumulated on the evolutionary changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, taking into account the trends in the acquisition of new epidemiological properties.

Conclusion. An analysis of the manifestations of the epidemic process of COVID-19, as a classic aerosol anthroponosis, confirmed the correctness of the theory of Academician V.D. Belyakov, according to which the basis of its development is a phase change in the heterogeneity of the biological properties of the interacting populations of the pathogen and humans, based on negative feedback in the process of self-regulation.

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About the authors

Vasily G. Akimkin

Central Research Institute for Epidemiology

Email: vgakimkin@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4228-9044
SPIN-code: 4038-7455

MD, PhD, Professor, Academician of the RAS]

Russian Federation, 3a Novogireevskaya str., 111123, Moscow

Tatiana A. Semenenko

National Research Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology named after Honorary Academician N.F. Gamaleya

Email: meddy@inbox.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6686-9011
SPIN-code: 8375-2270

MD, PhD, Professor]

Russian Federation, Moscow

Dmitry V. Dubodelov

Central Research Institute for Epidemiology

Email: dubodelov@cmd.su
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3093-5731
SPIN-code: 4860-7909

MD, PhD, Senior Research Associate

Russian Federation, 3a Novogireevskaya str., 111123, Moscow

Kamil F. Khafizov

Central Research Institute for Epidemiology

Email: khafizov@cmd.su
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5524-0296
SPIN-code: 9082-5749

PhD in Biology

Russian Federation, 3a Novogireevskaya str., 111123, Moscow

Svetlana V. Ugleva

Central Research Institute for Epidemiology

Author for correspondence.
Email: uglevas@bk.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1322-0155
SPIN-code: 8840-5814

MD, PhD, Professor

Russian Federation, 3a Novogireevskaya str., 111123, Moscow

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Phases of development of the epidemic process (according to V.D. Belyakov, 1986)

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3. Fig. 2. Dynamics of periods of rise and fall in the incidence of COVID-19 in the world, Russia (per 100 thousand population)

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4. Fig. 3. Dynamics of changes in the properties of the SARS-CoV-2 virus population in Russia in 2022-early 2023 (https://nextstrain.org/ncov/open/global/6m)

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5. Fig. 4. Dynamics of subvariants of the Omicron lineage (B.1.1.529+BA.*) identified in Russia according to the national database VGARus (01.2022-04.2023)

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